Macro-fiscal and Debt Analysis

The Challenge

Kenya faces a complex fiscal landscape marked by rising debt levels, constrained revenue growth, and increasing demands for public investment. Without a deliberate and equitable approach to fiscal consolidation, the country risks undermining its development goals and placing undue burden on vulnerable populations.

Our Approach

We work to ensure that Kenya’s fiscal policies are both sustainable and inclusive. Through rigorous analysis and advocacy, we promote a balanced mix of revenue enhancement and expenditure rationalization that supports long-term debt sustainability while protecting the poor.

Our work also focuses on identifying diverse and responsible financing options—including foreign direct investment (FDI), public-private partnerships (PPPs), grants, and sustainably priced debt—to fund high-impact development projects.

Strategic Focus Areas

Equitable Fiscal Consolidation

We analyze and advocate for fiscal strategies that combine smart revenue reforms with targeted expenditure cuts, ensuring that fiscal consolidation does not disproportionately affect low-income groups.

Debt Management and Transparency

We analyze and advocate for fiscal strategies that combine smart revenue reforms with targeted expenditure cuts, ensuring that fiscal consolidation does not disproportionately affect low-income groups.

Financing Alternatives

We explore and assess alternative financing mechanisms such as PPPs, FDIs, and grants to reduce reliance on costly public debt.

Export and Economic Diversification

We analyze strategies to boost exports and diversify the economy, helping to mitigate exchange rate risks and reduce external debt vulnerabilities.

Relevant Resources

Climate Financing, Health Financing, Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis, Revenue Policy

The Annual National Shadow Budget 2026/27

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Leveraging Public-Private Partnerships for Development

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

The Spillover Effects of Global Shocks on Kenya's Debt sustainability and Fiscal Resilience

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Challenges and Opportunities in Privatization of Commercial Non-Performing State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)

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