Macro-fiscal and Debt Analysis

The Challenge

Kenya faces a complex fiscal landscape marked by rising debt levels, constrained revenue growth, and increasing demands for public investment. Without a deliberate and equitable approach to fiscal consolidation, the country risks undermining its development goals and placing undue burden on vulnerable populations.

Our Approach

We work to ensure that Kenya’s fiscal policies are both sustainable and inclusive. Through rigorous analysis and advocacy, we promote a balanced mix of revenue enhancement and expenditure rationalization that supports long-term debt sustainability while protecting the poor.

Our work also focuses on identifying diverse and responsible financing options—including foreign direct investment (FDI), public-private partnerships (PPPs), grants, and sustainably priced debt—to fund high-impact development projects.

Strategic Focus Areas

Equitable Fiscal Consolidation

We analyze and advocate for fiscal strategies that combine smart revenue reforms with targeted expenditure cuts, ensuring that fiscal consolidation does not disproportionately affect low-income groups.

Debt Management and Transparency

We analyze and advocate for fiscal strategies that combine smart revenue reforms with targeted expenditure cuts, ensuring that fiscal consolidation does not disproportionately affect low-income groups.

Financing Alternatives

We explore and assess alternative financing mechanisms such as PPPs, FDIs, and grants to reduce reliance on costly public debt.

Export and Economic Diversification

We analyze strategies to boost exports and diversify the economy, helping to mitigate exchange rate risks and reduce external debt vulnerabilities.

Relevant Resources

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Assessing Shifts in Fiscal Priorities in the FY 2026/27 Budget

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Annual National Shadow Budget 2024/25

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis, Revenue Policy

Assessment of the National Assembly’s Review of the FY 2026/27 Budget Estimates

Climate Financing, Health Financing, Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis, Revenue Policy

The Annual National Shadow Budget 2026/27

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Leveraging Public-Private Partnerships for Development

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

The Spillover Effects of Global Shocks on Kenya's Debt sustainability and Fiscal Resilience

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Challenges and Opportunities in Privatization of Commercial Non-Performing State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Credibility and Policy Shift Assessment on BPS 2026

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Enhancing Transparency and Accountability in Domestic Debt Management in Kenya

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

A Review of the 2026 Medium Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS)

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

FY 2024-25 Annual Public Debt Management Report (Citizen Version)

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Macro Fiscal Analytic Snapshot 2026 (Abridged Version)

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Macro Fiscal Analytic Snapshot 2026

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Kenya Public Debt Infographic October 2025

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Kenya's Public Debt Profile

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Selected Macro Fiscal Indicators

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

SDRs for Peoples Recovery in Kenya

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Macro Fiscal Analytic Snapshot 2023

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

A Mid-Year Diagnostic of Kenya’s Crossroads in 2025

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Kenya Shadow Governance Diagnostic Report

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Public Debt Service during Covid 19 Crisis to increase Miseries of the Poor in Kenya

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Shadow Budget 2021/22

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Kenya Fiscal Analytic Snapshot 2020

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

IPF Kenya’s Debt Profile Report

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Kenya’s 2025 Medium Term Debt Management Strategy

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Strengthening Debt Accountability in Kenya

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Evolution of Public Debt in East African Community (EAC)

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Review of the Implementation of the Medium-Term Debt Strategy in Kenya

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Annual National Shadow Budget

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Annual National Shadow Budget for FY 2023/2024

Macro Fiscal and Debt Analysis

Evolution of Public Debt in East African Community (EAC)

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