We have released the sixth edition of the Annual National Shadow Budget (ANSB). This comes at a critical moment for Kenya, one defined by tightening fiscal space, rising debt obligations, increasing social demands, and growing exposure to both domestic and global shocks like the current war in Iran that has brought imbalance in oil prices all over the world. In such a context, the national budget is not merely a technical instrument; it is the clearest expression of our national priorities, our trade- offs, and ultimately, our commitment to improving the lives of the citizens.
This year’s theme, “From Optimism to Realism: Aligning Kenya’s Policy Commitments with the Budget,” speaks directly to a central concern emerging from our analysis. It reflects a widening gap between what we promise in policy and what we actually finance through the budget. At the heart of this year’s Shadow Budget is a simple but powerful message: Kenya’s policy ambitions are not consistently matched by credible financing plans, and this disconnect is undermining delivery across key sectors such as health, social protection, Women’s Economic Empowerment (WEE), and climate adaptation, where we see strong policy commitments, but weak alignment with budgets, fragmented financing, and uneven results. This is not merely a technical issue but fundamentally a governance issue about whether public resources are being used effectively and equitably.
IPF calls on the Government to use the FY 2026/27 budget to restore fiscal discipline and refocus spending on high‑impact priorities by adopting realistic revenue projections, enforcing hard spending ceilings and limiting use of supplementary budgets. We further urge for increased domestic health financing with a clear post‑donor transition plan, stronger and more coordinated social protection systems, institutionalized gender‑responsive budgeting, and the mainstreaming of climate adaptation financing across sector budgets, alongside enhanced transparency and parliamentary oversight.
Read IPF’s press release
Access the Annual National Shadow Budget 2026/27
