Kenya’s FY 2023/24 revenue hit KSh 2.7 trillion—over three times FY 2012/13 levels—yet still fell about KSh 200 billion short of the target

Since the 2012/13 financial year, Kenya’s total revenue has more than tripled — growing from about KSh 850 billion to around KSh 2.7 trillion in 2023/24. But as collections increased, the government also kept raising its targets, so actual revenue has often fallen short of what was planned.

 

In the early years, the gap between what was collected and what was targeted was small — about KSh 70 billion in 2012/13 and KSh 30 billion in 2013/14. As the targets grew faster, the gap widened — reaching about KSh 170 billion in 2017/18. During the COVID-19 years, the gap narrowed as both targets and collections rose more slowly.

 

The only time Kenya beat its revenue target was in 2021/22, when the economy bounced back after COVID-19. People spent more, tax collection improved, and some one-off measures helped push revenue to KSh 2.20 trillion — slightly more than the KSh 2.19 trillion target.

Since then, the trend has continued: in 2022/23, revenue was KSh 120 billion below the KSh 2.48 trillion target. In 2023/24, the target was KSh 2.91 trillion, but collections missed by about KSh 200 billion.

 

This shows two things: Kenya’s revenue keeps growing thanks to a growing economy, rising prices, and better collection systems — but the targets remain very ambitious, often outpacing what is realistically achievable.